the right way to invest blog
Here you will find the Q2, 2019 Market Summary Report. Typically, I draw your attention to an informative or thought-provoking (in my opinion, at least😊) write up that concludes the quarterly report, but this time is different. On page 4 (pasted below, as well), you will find the Long-Term Market Summary for major index returns over the last 1, 5, and 10 years. I think it’s a very powerful graphic showing the importance of owning a diversified portfolio covering all these markets – you’ll see big green arrows all across the board! We know short-term time frames of especially 1 year, and even 5 years can exhibit very wild and unpredictable returns, but 10 year returns start to show pretty reliable numbers – typically you will find two things: 1) positive returns; and 2) stocks offering better returns than bonds. We know owing stocks (for growth) and bonds (for protection and income) for the long-term are a great wealth building and wealth preserving tool and graphics like these reinforce that belief.
Everybody has or knows someone who has a great market timing story. Their story might be a little exaggerated or embellished, but it’s probably mostly true…of course, you typically only hear the good stories and not the bad ones. Market timing is tough, very tough. It requires picking the right time to get into a stock and the right time to get out of a stock – it’s doubly hard to get it right both times.
For every share of a stock bought, there is a share sold. Typically, this buying and selling is done at an exchange. The combined effect of all this buying and selling is that all available information is quickly incorporated into a stock’s price. So, trying to time the market based on an article you read, a TV show you watched, a chart you analyzed, or what your neighbor said is likely to send you chasing after old news. If only we could stay ahead of old news.
But what about professional stock pickers? They’re professionals, so they must know more than us, or be correct more often, right? Unfortunately, that’s not the case. Check out the this article from DFA to learn why.
Michael Pensinger, CFP® is Owner and President of Pensinger Financial, Inc.
He grew up in Park Forest, Illinois and now resides in Lemont, Illinois with his wife, two children, and two dogs. Michael serves as Treasurer on the Lemont Area Chamber of Commerce Board of Directors and he volunteers for the Lemont Open Space Committee. Read More